This post was originally published on Bitcoinist
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Bitcoin surged above $72,000 yesterday and is holding above $70,000 today. The narrative of a bottom is building. And an XWIN Research Japan analysis is asking the more important question: not whether Bitcoin has bounced, but whether anyone understands why it fell.
The report from XWIN Research Japan reframes the past six months in a way that changes how the current recovery should be read. Bitcoin is not, in their framework, a standard risk asset that rises and falls with market sentiment. It is a terminal liquidity asset — the last recipient in a hierarchical financial system where capital flows from central banks to government bonds to equities and finally, at the very end of the chain, to crypto. When the upstream flow weakens, Bitcoin does not experience demand destruction. It receives nothing. The capital simply never arrives.
That is what happened over the past six months. Elevated US interest rates, a strengthening dollar, and rising Japanese bond yields simultaneously tightened global liquidity from multiple directions. Japan — one of the largest external investors in global markets — reduced its capital exports as domestic
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