This post was originally published on Cointelgraph
Ever since Polymarket correctly tipped a Donald Trump victory in 2024, months before the polls and pundits did, prediction markets have gone from strength to strength.
Monthly trading volumes grew $4.3 billion in the lead up to the election, and have continued sharply upwards to $10.6 billion in March this year.
But allegations of shady insider bets, on everything from the content of MrBeast videos to the timing of the Iran war, began to dog both Polymarket and Kalshi as they became more popular.
Karoline Thomsen, international law and relations researcher at the University of New South Wales, says there is evidence that prediction markets can surface and aggregate useful information — but they can also incentivize insider trading.
“I think with Polymarket, what you also get are bets that lend themselves to people misusing insider information,” she says. “At that point, you’re not predicting what is going to happen, you are telling other people, or signaling to other people, what is going to happen. ”
MrBeast builds a boat to escape a deserted island. (MrBeast/YouTube) ” data-large-file=”https://s3.magazine.cointelegraph.com/magazine/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/MrBeast.jpg” src=”https://s3.magazine.cointelegraph.com/magazine/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/MrBeast.jpg” alt=”MrBeast” class=”wp-image-58962″ srcset=”https://s3.magazine.cointelegraph.com/magazine/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/MrBeast.jpg 848w, https://s3.magazine.cointelegraph.com/magazine/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/MrBeast-300×168.jpg 300w, https://s3.magazine.cointelegraph.com/magazine/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/MrBeast-770×430.jpg 770w” sizes=”(max-width: 848px) 100vw, 848px”>MrBeast builds a boat to escape a deserted island. (MrBeast/YouTube) What prediction
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